Global Real Estate Market Forecast: Trend Analysis for 2025-2026

According to Fitch Ratings, global housing prices are expected to continue rising over the next two years. Most countries will experience low to mid-single-digit percentage increases annually. The primary cause is an imbalance between supply and demand: the insufficient availability of new housing fails to meet the growing needs.

Factors Stimulating Demand:

- Low unemployment rates
- Growth in real household incomes
- Slowing inflation

Leading Countries in Real Estate Price Growth
The highest price increases in 2025 are expected in the following countries:

Netherlands and Canada – due to government programs supporting first-time buyers
Brazil and Mexico – driven by rising wages and increased construction costs

Real Estate Market Situation in Europe
Overall, Eurozone countries show an upward trend in housing prices, but there are exceptions.

Key Forecasts:
France – Prices are expected to decline due to limited purchasing power and political uncertainty. However, this trend will slow down, with a possible reversal in 2026.
Netherlands – Growth rates will decrease from 13% in 2024 to 8-10% in 2025 and 6-8% in 2026. Reasons include a shortage of affordable housing and rising construction material and labor costs.
Germany and Spain – Prices are expected to rise faster. In Spain, an increase of 4-6% in 2025 and 5-7% in 2026 is projected, while Germany will see a steady annual rise of 2-4%.
United Kingdom – Moderate growth (2-4% in 2025 and 2026), supported by lower mortgage rates and labor market stability.
Denmark – Property values are expected to increase by 2-4%, driven by lower interest rates and rising household incomes.
Italy – A moderate increase (0.5-2.5% per year) is expected, influenced by high mortgage rates and reduced construction activity.

Factors Influencing the Real Estate Market
Despite overall price growth, certain risks may affect market dynamics:

Limited supply – High land, labor, and material costs constrain construction.
Climate risks – Floods and new EU environmental regulations impact prices and demand.
Lower mortgage rates – Expected to decrease to 2.5%, which could improve housing affordability.

Macroeconomic Factors Impacting the Market
Fitch Ratings warns that global events could alter current forecasts:

Optimistic scenario – If economic growth and household incomes exceed expectations, housing demand will rise, leading to even higher prices.
Negative scenario – Economic downturns and rising unemployment may weaken demand, causing market stagnation.
Tax and operational cost increases – Additional expenses may deter potential buyers.

Conclusion
Over the next two years, the global real estate market is expected to maintain positive momentum. However, economic, tax, and climate factors could influence the situation. Investors should consider macroeconomic trends and regional market specifics to make well-informed decisions.